El Niño Update
By Mlungisi Shabalala, 31 July 2023
uMngeni-uThukela Water continues to monitor the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. The ENSO phenomenon consists of two contrary climate cycles, i.e. El Niño and La Niña, as well as a neutral/normal state in between these two opposite cycles. The ENSO phenomenon develops in the Pacific Ocean, where trade winds normally blow from east to west (neutral state). During La Niña, these winds blow stronger than usual, causing a rapid rise of warm air in the western Pacific Ocean. In contrast, the trade winds weaken and blow eastwards during El Niño conditions. Although ENSO develops in the Pacific Ocean, this phenomenon has been shown to impact South Africa’s climate. Loosely translated, El Niño is associated with dry and hot conditions, while La Niña generally results in above-average precipitation in South Africa.
The latest ENSO status and projections from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (issued on 13th July 2023) indicate a 96% likelihood of El Niño conditions for the remainder of the winter period to early summer.
Most dams in the KwaZulu-Natal Province are at relatively high storage levels as we approach the final third of the winter season due to the above-average rainfall received in the province over the previous summer season, as well as significant rainfall received during May and June 2023. Therefore, the risk of non-supply for uMngeni-uThukela’s area of operation is low for the second half of 2023. However, the likelihood of a hot and dry summer season may pose a threat to the recharge of water resources. Therefore, persistence of a strong El Niño signal in summer may increase the risk of non-supply in subsequent seasons. These conditions necessitate the need for all stakeholders to remain alert and contribute to the conservation of available water resources. uMngeni-uThukela Water will issue an update at the end of August 2023. See latest dam levels here.
