El Niño Update
By Mlungisi Shabalala, 29 September 2023
uMngeni-uThukela Water continues to monitor the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal and, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the ENSO is currently in an El Niño state. This is in line with the latest ENSO status and projections published by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, which suggest a 100% likelihood of El Niño conditions throughout spring to mid-summer. El Niño is associated with dry and hot conditions, posing a risk to water resources availability. Therefore, efficient use and management of water resources is essential during El Niño cycles.
Most dams that are managed and operated by uMngeni-uThukela Water are currently in relatively acceptable levels. However, it is important to note that major dams such as Midmar, Inanda and Spring Grove Dams are at lower storage levels than compared with a similar time last year. Although the risk of non-supply remains low for most areas supplied by uMngeni-uThukela Water in the short-term, sustenance of El Niño conditions will significantly increase the risk of non-supply.
| Site Name | Today (%full) | Last Year (%full) |
| Henley Dam | 101 | 105 |
| Hazelmere Dam | 49 | 49 |
| Umzinto Dam | 100 | 100 |
| Inanda Dam | 94 | 101 |
| iMvutshane Dam | 60 | 48 |
| Mearns Dam | 71 | 68 |
| Nagle Dam | 85 | 94 |
| Spring Grove Dam | 76 | 93 |
| Nungwane Dam | 100 | 101 |
| Albert Falls Dam | 93 | 94 |
| Home Farm Dam | 96 | 95 |
| Olifantskop Dam | 74 | 101 |
| Ludeke Dam | 58 | 100 |
| Midmar Dam | 80 | 92 |
| E.J. Smith Dam | 100 | 100 |
| Mhlabatshane Dam | 100 | 100 |
| Woodstock Dam | 97 | 87 |
| Spioenkop Dam | 87 | 100 |
| Wagendrift Dam | 89 | 99 |
| Goedertrouw Dam | 98 | 98 |
With climate models pointing towards the sustenance of El Niño conditions over the summer season with more confidence, stakeholders are advised to remain alert and follow weather updates (as well as warnings) from the South African Weather Service. Water users are encouraged to practice and promote water conservation measures such as reusing water for non-potable domestic activities, reporting and fixing water leaks, taking shorter showers, etc. uMngeni-uThukela Water will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions, and provide updates on the situation as it unfolds. The next El Niño update will be issued at the end of October 2023.
